Pair #9893

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATP1RANK-26DEC31-JSIN

Who will be the #1 ranked ATP men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026?

Series: KXATP1RANK
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-12-31T17:00:00Z
Volume: 5240

YES ask: 0.9100
NO ask: 0.1000
Last: 0.9100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jannik Sinner is the #1 ranked on the PIF ATP singles rankings on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPFINALSQUAL-26NIT-SIN

Will Jannik Sinner qualify for the Nitto ATP Singles Finals?

Series: KXATPFINALSQUAL
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-11-15T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1683

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.0400
Last: 0.9600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jannik Sinner qualifies for the 2026 Nitto ATP Singles Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:01:59Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Being #1 on Dec 31 does not logically guarantee having qualified for the Finals earlier in the season (rankings could shift after the Finals cutoff), and qualifying for the Finals doesn't guarantee being #1 at year end.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -16.69% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0800 + ~$0.0077 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -21.13% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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