Pair #989

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-JSPA

Valspar Championship: Will J.J. Spaun finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4898

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-JSPA

Valspar Championship: Will J.J. Spaun finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3459

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:14:30Z

Reasoning: If Spaun finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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