Pair #988

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JSPA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2647

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-JSPA

Valspar Championship: Will J.J. Spaun finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3459

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:14:30Z

Reasoning: These are independent events. Finishing top 20 at the Valspar (a non-major) has no logical relationship to winning a major in 2026.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -1.83% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 197
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -6.14% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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