Pair #9878

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATP-26USO-ZVE

Will Alexander Zverev win the US Open Men's Singles?

Series: KXATP
Entity: Alexander Zverev
Expiration: 2026-09-14T05:00:00Z
Volume: 16295

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alexander Zverev wins the 2026 US Open Men's Singles professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPFINALSQUAL-26NIT-ZVE

Will Alexander Zverev qualify for the Nitto ATP Singles Finals?

Series: KXATPFINALSQUAL
Entity: Alexander Zverev
Expiration: 2026-11-15T15:00:00Z
Volume: 531

YES ask: 0.9700
NO ask: 0.0800
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alexander Zverev qualifies for the 2026 Nitto ATP Singles Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:01:24Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning the US Open greatly boosts ranking points but does not logically guarantee qualification for the Nitto ATP Finals (top-8 cutoff depends on other players' results, and injury/withdrawal could prevent qualification). No strict necessity either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -97.97% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8900 + ~$0.0072 est. fees
Days to maturity: 60
Hurdle yield: 4.32%
Excess yield: -102.29% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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