Pair #9873

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATP-26USO-ZVE

Will Alexander Zverev win the US Open Men's Singles?

Series: KXATP
Entity: Alexander Zverev
Expiration: 2026-09-14T05:00:00Z
Volume: 16295

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alexander Zverev wins the 2026 US Open Men's Singles professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATP1RANK-26DEC31-AZVE

Who will be the #1 ranked ATP men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026?

Series: KXATP1RANK
Entity: Alexander Zverev
Expiration: 2026-12-31T17:00:00Z
Volume: 2321

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alexander Zverev is the #1 ranked on the PIF ATP singles rankings on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:00:56Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Being #1 at year-end doesn't require winning the US Open, and winning the US Open doesn't guarantee year-end #1 ranking.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -17.17% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0200 + ~$0.0115 est. fees
Days to maturity: 60
Hurdle yield: 4.32%
Excess yield: -21.49% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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