Antecedent (if this happens)
KXATP-26USO-ZVE
Will Alexander Zverev win the US Open Men's Singles?
Series: KXATP
Entity: Alexander Zverev
Expiration: 2026-09-14T05:00:00Z
Volume: 16295
YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.0900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Alexander Zverev wins the 2026 US Open Men's Singles professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXATP1RANK-26DEC31-AZVE
Who will be the #1 ranked ATP men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026?
Series: KXATP1RANK
Entity: Alexander Zverev
Expiration: 2026-12-31T17:00:00Z
Volume: 2321
YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.0700
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Alexander Zverev is the #1 ranked on the PIF ATP singles rankings on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:00:56Z
Code version: N/A
Reasoning: Being #1 at year-end doesn't require winning the US Open, and winning the US Open doesn't guarantee year-end #1 ranking.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-17.17%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0200
+ ~$0.0115 est. fees
Days to maturity:
60
Hurdle yield:
4.32%
Excess yield:
-21.49%
BELOW HURDLE