Pair #9872

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATP1RANK-26DEC31-AZVE

Who will be the #1 ranked ATP men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026?

Series: KXATP1RANK
Entity: Alexander Zverev
Expiration: 2026-12-31T17:00:00Z
Volume: 2321

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.0700

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Rules If Alexander Zverev is the #1 ranked on the PIF ATP singles rankings on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPFINALSQUAL-26NIT-ZVE

Will Alexander Zverev qualify for the Nitto ATP Singles Finals?

Series: KXATPFINALSQUAL
Entity: Alexander Zverev
Expiration: 2026-11-15T15:00:00Z
Volume: 531

YES ask: 0.9700
NO ask: 0.0800
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alexander Zverev qualifies for the 2026 Nitto ATP Singles Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:00:56Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Being ranked #1 at year-end guarantees being in the top 8, which qualifies for the ATP Finals; the reverse isn't necessarily true.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -74.92% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8900 + ~$0.0072 est. fees
Days to maturity: 169
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -79.36% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: rejected
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:42:04Z

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