Pair #9870

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-PHAR

Will Padraig Harrington lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Padraig Harrington
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1404

YES ask: 0.0040
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0060

View on Kalshi

Rules If Padraig Harrington is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN-2027EUR-PHAR

Padraig Harrington to be the Europe Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup

Series: KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN
Entity: Padraig Harrington
Expiration: 2027-09-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 1264

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Padraig Harrington is the Europe Team Captain at the 2027 Ryder Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:00:56Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: No logical connection between a captaincy appointment and a round-1 lead in a golf tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -88.36% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0990 + ~$0.0064 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -92.59% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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