Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP20-THOC26-PHAR
The Open Championship: Will Padraig Harrington finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Padraig Harrington
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 18458
YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Padraig Harrington finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN-2027EUR-PHAR
Padraig Harrington to be the Europe Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup
Series: KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN
Entity: Padraig Harrington
Expiration: 2027-09-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 1264
YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Padraig Harrington is the Europe Team Captain at the 2027 Ryder Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:00:56Z
Code version: N/A
Reasoning: Being a future Ryder Cup captain has no logical bearing on a 2026 tournament finish.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-65.10%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0400
+ ~$0.0102 est. fees
Days to maturity:
17
Hurdle yield:
4.23%
Excess yield:
-69.33%
BELOW HURDLE