Pair #9867

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-JROS

Will Justin Rose win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1106774

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9810
Last: 0.0200

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Rules

If Justin Rose wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JROS

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 40369

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Justin Rose wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:00:56Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: The Open Championship is one of the four majors, so winning it guarantees winning a major in 2026. The reverse isn't true since he could win a different major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -82.32% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0110 + ~$0.0033 est. fees
Days to maturity: 3
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -86.55% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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