Pair #9866

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JROS

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 40369

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JROS

The Open Championship: Will Justin Rose finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 23903

YES ask: 0.3500
NO ask: 0.6800
Last: 0.3400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:00:56Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning any major doesn't mean winning The Open specifically, so top-20 at The Open isn't guaranteed; top-20 doesn't imply a major win either.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -47.67% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3300 + ~$0.0173 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -52.11% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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