Pair #9865

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-JROS

The Open Championship: Will Justin Rose finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 13415

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1200

Rules

If Justin Rose finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN-2027EUR-JROS

Justin Rose to be the Europe Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup

Series: KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2027-09-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 5018

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.4900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Justin Rose is the Europe Team Captain at the 2027 Ryder Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:00:33Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Finishing top5 at The Open has no necessary link to being Ryder Cup captain.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -6.54% (negative yield)
Cost: $0.9900 + ~$0.0132 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -10.77% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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