Pair #9862

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-FMOL

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Francesco Molinari finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Francesco Molinari
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3064

YES ask: 0.6100
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.2700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Francesco Molinari finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN-2027EUR-FMOL

Francesco Molinari to be the Europe Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup

Series: KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN
Entity: Francesco Molinari
Expiration: 2027-09-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 4831

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.4900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Francesco Molinari is the Europe Team Captain at the 2027 Ryder Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:00:33Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: No necessary connection between finishing top20 and being captain.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -95.35% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0800 + ~$0.0077 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -99.58% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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