Pair #986

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-JSPA

Valspar Championship: Will J.J. Spaun finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3459

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

Rules

If J.J. Spaun finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-JSPA

Will J.J. Spaun win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 4303647

YES ask: 0.0030
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0030

View on Kalshi

Rules

If J.J. Spaun wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:14:30Z

Reasoning: These are completely independent events — one is a top 20 finish at the Valspar Championship, the other is winning the Masters. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0030
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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