Pair #9859

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-FMOL

Will Francesco Molinari win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Francesco Molinari
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 301469

YES ask: 0.0020
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0020

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Francesco Molinari wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN-2027EUR-FMOL

Francesco Molinari to be the Europe Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup

Series: KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN
Entity: Francesco Molinari
Expiration: 2027-09-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 4831

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.4900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Francesco Molinari is the Europe Team Captain at the 2027 Ryder Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:00:33Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: No logical link between being captain and winning a major tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0990 + ~$0.0064 est. fees
Days to maturity: 3
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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