Pair #9857

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-TWOO

Will Tiger Woods lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Tiger Woods
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 247

YES ask: 0.0290
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0290

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tiger Woods is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN-2027USA-TWOO

Tiger Woods to be the U.S. Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup

Series: KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN
Entity: Tiger Woods
Expiration: 2027-09-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 8436

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tiger Woods is the U.S. Team Captain at the 2027 Ryder Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:00:33Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Captaincy and leading a round are unrelated; no necessity either way.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -88.57% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1000 + ~$0.0063 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -92.80% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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