Pair #9856

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-KBRA

Will Keegan Bradley win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Keegan Bradley
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1493386

YES ask: 0.0070
NO ask: 0.9940
Last: 0.0070

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Rules

If Keegan Bradley wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-KBRA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Keegan Bradley
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1194

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Keegan Bradley wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:00:33Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: The Open Championship is one of the four majors listed, so winning it guarantees winning a major in 2026. The reverse is not true since another major could be won instead.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -46.22% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0040 + ~$0.0011 est. fees
Days to maturity: 3
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -50.45% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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