Pair #9852

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-GESO26-MARM

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Marcus Armitage finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Marcus Armitage
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1030

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marcus Armitage finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-MARM

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Marcus Armitage finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Marcus Armitage
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 613

YES ask: 0.8300
NO ask: 0.7600
Last: 0.5900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marcus Armitage finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-12T07:45:39Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP5 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8100 + ~$0.0112 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T07:45:39Z

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