Pair #9848

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-GESO26-KVIL

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Karl Vilips finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Karl Vilips
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 832

YES ask: 0.4200
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.4700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Karl Vilips finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-KVIL

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Karl Vilips finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Karl Vilips
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3894

YES ask: 0.9000
NO ask: 0.5600
Last: 0.6100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Karl Vilips finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-12T07:45:39Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP5 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8800 + ~$0.0077 est. fees
Days to maturity: 11
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T07:45:39Z

Authenticate

← Back to review queue