Pair #9847

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-KVIL

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Karl Vilips finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Karl Vilips
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2358

YES ask: 0.6200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Karl Vilips finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-KVIL

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Karl Vilips finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Karl Vilips
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3894

YES ask: 0.9000
NO ask: 0.5600
Last: 0.6100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Karl Vilips finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-12T07:45:39Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9000 + ~$0.0063 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T07:45:39Z

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