Pair #9840

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-DVAN

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Darius Van Driel finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Darius Van Driel
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 729

YES ask: 0.4200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Darius Van Driel finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-DVAN

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Darius Van Driel finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Darius Van Driel
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 673

YES ask: 0.4800
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Darius Van Driel finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-12T07:45:39Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4800 + ~$0.0175 est. fees
Days to maturity: 11
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T07:45:39Z

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