Pair #9834

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-GESO26-ADEL

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Alejandro Del Rey finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Alejandro Del Rey
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 403

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alejandro Del Rey finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-ADEL

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Alejandro Del Rey finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Alejandro Del Rey
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3975

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.8300
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alejandro Del Rey finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-12T07:45:39Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP5 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP10 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.83% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2000 + ~$0.0123 est. fees
Days to maturity: 11
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.06% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T07:45:39Z

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