Pair #9822

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-ISC26-THOG

ISCO Championship: Will Tom Hoge finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Tom Hoge
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 858

YES ask: 0.3800
NO ask: 0.6600
Last: 0.3100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Hoge finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 ISCO Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-ISC26-THOG

ISCO Championship: Will Tom Hoge finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tom Hoge
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3073

YES ask: 0.8700
NO ask: 0.1400
Last: 0.8700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Hoge finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 ISCO Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-12T07:45:39Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP5 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5300 + ~$0.0236 est. fees
Days to maturity: 11
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T07:45:39Z

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