Pair #9821

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-ISC26-THOG

ISCO Championship: Will Tom Hoge finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Tom Hoge
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 858

YES ask: 0.3800
NO ask: 0.6600
Last: 0.3100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Hoge finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 ISCO Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-ISC26-THOG

ISCO Championship: Will Tom Hoge finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Tom Hoge
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 964

YES ask: 0.6300
NO ask: 0.4100
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Hoge finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 ISCO Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-12T07:45:39Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP5 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP10 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.99% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2900 + ~$0.0320 est. fees
Days to maturity: 11
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T07:45:39Z

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