Pair #9804

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-RFOX

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Ryan Fox finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Ryan Fox
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 313

YES ask: 0.4500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ryan Fox finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-RFOX

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Ryan Fox finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Ryan Fox
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4321

YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ryan Fox finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-12T07:45:39Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.97% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2700 + ~$0.0138 est. fees
Days to maturity: 11
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.20% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T07:45:39Z

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