Pair #9799

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-THAT

Will Tyrrell Hatton lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 21531

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9840
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-GESO26-THAT

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Tyrrell Hatton finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5424

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-12T07:45:39Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: finish-position markets in different tournaments

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -91.72% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1140 + ~$0.0090 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -95.95% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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