Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-THAT
Will Tyrrell Hatton lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 21531
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9840
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tyrrell Hatton is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOUR-THOC26-THAT
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the The Open Championship?
Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 827953
YES ask: 0.0220
NO ask: 0.9790
Last: 0.0220
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tyrrell Hatton wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-12T07:45:39Z
Code version: N/A
Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-16.81%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0060
+ ~$0.0026 est. fees
Days to maturity:
17
Hurdle yield:
4.23%
Excess yield:
-21.04%
BELOW HURDLE