Pair #9785

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-DWIL

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Danny Willett finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Danny Willett
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8722

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Danny Willett finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-DWIL

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Danny Willett finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Danny Willett
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5741

YES ask: 0.6500
NO ask: 0.7600
Last: 0.3400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Danny Willett finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6400 + ~$0.0166 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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