Pair #9784

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-GESO26-DWIL

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Danny Willett finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Danny Willett
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 362

YES ask: 0.4800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Danny Willett finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-DWIL

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Danny Willett finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Danny Willett
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8722

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Danny Willett finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP5 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP10 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.94% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2400 + ~$0.0128 est. fees
Days to maturity: 11
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.17% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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