Pair #9772

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-MTHO

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Michael Thorbjornsen finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 17853

YES ask: 0.7900
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.7000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Thorbjornsen finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-MTHO

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Michael Thorbjornsen finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5686

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 0.4800
Last: 0.9300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Thorbjornsen finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6600 + ~$0.0177 est. fees
Days to maturity: 11
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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