Pair #9767

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-ASUL

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Andy Sullivan finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Andy Sullivan
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 31035

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Andy Sullivan finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-ASUL

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Andy Sullivan finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Andy Sullivan
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 860

YES ask: 0.5200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Andy Sullivan finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5100 + ~$0.0182 est. fees
Days to maturity: 11
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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