Pair #9759

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-MSCH

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Matti Schmid finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Matti Schmid
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2875

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matti Schmid finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-MSCH

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Matti Schmid finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matti Schmid
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3407

YES ask: 0.6800
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.3500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matti Schmid finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6600 + ~$0.0166 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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