Pair #9755

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-KROY

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Kevin Roy finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Kevin Roy
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1069

YES ask: 0.7900
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.4800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Kevin Roy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-KROY

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Kevin Roy finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Kevin Roy
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3799

YES ask: 0.9100
NO ask: 0.6200
Last: 0.8400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Kevin Roy finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8600 + ~$0.0091 est. fees
Days to maturity: 11
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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