Pair #9737

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-GMIG

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Guido Migliozzi finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Guido Migliozzi
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8859

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Guido Migliozzi finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-GMIG

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Guido Migliozzi finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Guido Migliozzi
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4868

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Guido Migliozzi finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.90% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2200 + ~$0.0120 est. fees
Days to maturity: 11
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.13% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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