Pair #9733

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-MMEI

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Mac Meissner finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Mac Meissner
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 789

YES ask: 0.6800
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.3300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Mac Meissner finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-MMEI

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Mac Meissner finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Mac Meissner
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2242

YES ask: 0.6600
NO ask: 0.6500
Last: 0.6800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Mac Meissner finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6400 + ~$0.0171 est. fees
Days to maturity: 11
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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