Pair #9727

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-JLUI

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Joost Luiten finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Joost Luiten
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4986

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joost Luiten finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-JLUI

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Joost Luiten finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Joost Luiten
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 15383

YES ask: 0.5600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.3200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joost Luiten finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5600 + ~$0.0172 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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