Pair #972

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-MBRE

Valspar Championship: Will Michael Brennan finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Michael Brennan
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 520

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Brennan finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-MBRE

Will Michael Brennan win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Michael Brennan
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 1076064

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Brennan wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:13:56Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters has no logical bearing on finishing top 10 at the Valspar Championship, and vice versa. These are independent events at different tournaments.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0010
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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