Pair #9711

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-CKIR

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Chris Kirk finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Chris Kirk
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1732

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Kirk finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-CKIR

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Chris Kirk finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Chris Kirk
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 16010

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Kirk finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.87% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2100 + ~$0.0116 est. fees
Days to maturity: 11
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.10% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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