Pair #9705

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-JKEE

Genesis Scottish Open: Will John Keefer finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: John Keefer
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5233

YES ask: 0.6000
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.5700

View on Kalshi

Rules If John Keefer finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-JKEE

Genesis Scottish Open: Will John Keefer finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: John Keefer
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5382

YES ask: 0.9000
NO ask: 0.3000
Last: 0.9000

View on Kalshi

Rules If John Keefer finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3900 + ~$0.0238 est. fees
Days to maturity: 11
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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