Pair #970

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-MBRE

Will Michael Brennan lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Michael Brennan
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 780

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Brennan is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-MBRE

Valspar Championship: Will Michael Brennan finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Michael Brennan
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 520

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Brennan finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:13:56Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 10 final finish, and finishing top 10 does not require having led after Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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