Pair #97

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNBANORTHWEST-25-DEN

Will Denver win the Pro Basketball Northwest Division Winner?

Series: KXNBANORTHWEST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-04-13T14:00:00Z
Volume: 16526

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denver is the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Northwest Division Winner, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRECORDNBABEST-26-DEN

Who will have the best record in the league?

Series: KXRECORDNBABEST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-04-13T14:00:00Z
Volume: 4499

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denver has the best regular season record in the league in the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Season, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:01:10Z

Reasoning: Having the best record in the entire league would imply winning the Northwest Division, but winning the Northwest Division does not imply having the best record league-wide. However, 'best record in the league' does logically imply winning your division (you can't have the best record in the league without having the best record in your division). So KXRECORDNBABEST-26-DEN → KXNBANORTHWEST-25-DEN should hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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