Pair #9698

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-CHIL

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Calum Hill finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Calum Hill
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7381

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Calum Hill finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-CHIL

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Calum Hill finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Calum Hill
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1427

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Calum Hill finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.94% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2100 + ~$0.0127 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.17% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

Authenticate

← Back to review queue