Pair #9689

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-MGRE

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Max Greyserman finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Max Greyserman
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 260

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Max Greyserman finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-MGRE

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Max Greyserman finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Max Greyserman
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3129

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Max Greyserman finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -96.45% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0900 + ~$0.0057 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -100.68% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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