Pair #9672

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-NECH

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Nicolas Echavarria finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Nicolas Echavarria
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1659

YES ask: 0.4100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nicolas Echavarria finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-NECH

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Nicolas Echavarria finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Nicolas Echavarria
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5262

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nicolas Echavarria finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -90.80% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0700 + ~$0.0046 est. fees
Days to maturity: 11
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -95.03% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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