Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP10-VAC26-MBRE
Valspar Championship: Will Michael Brennan finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Michael Brennan
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 520
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Michael Brennan finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VAC26-MBRE
Valspar Championship: Will Michael Brennan finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Michael Brennan
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 483
YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Michael Brennan finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:13:56Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20. The reverse does not hold — a top 20 finish does not require a top 10 finish.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0300
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A