Pair #9661

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-HDUP

Will Hennie Du Plessis lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Hennie Du Plessis
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 677

YES ask: 0.0060
NO ask: 0.9950
Last: 0.0050

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hennie Du Plessis is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-HDUP

Will Hennie Du Plessis win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Hennie Du Plessis
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 114299

YES ask: 0.0020
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0020

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hennie Du Plessis wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): 5.55% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9970 + ~$0.0005 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: +1.32% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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