Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP20-VAC26-MBRE
Valspar Championship: Will Michael Brennan finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Michael Brennan
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 483
YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Michael Brennan finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOUR-MAST26-MBRE
Will Michael Brennan win the Masters Tournament?
Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Michael Brennan
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 1076064
YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Michael Brennan wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:13:56Z
Reasoning: These are entirely different tournaments. A top 20 finish at the Valspar has no logical bearing on winning the Masters, and vice versa.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.9810
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A