Pair #965

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-MBRE

Valspar Championship: Will Michael Brennan finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Michael Brennan
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 483

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Brennan finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-MBRE

Will Michael Brennan win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Michael Brennan
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 1076064

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Brennan wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:13:56Z

Reasoning: These are entirely different tournaments. A top 20 finish at the Valspar has no logical bearing on winning the Masters, and vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9810
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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