Pair #9646

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-ECOL

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Eric Cole finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Eric Cole
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7189

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Eric Cole finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-ECOL

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Eric Cole finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Eric Cole
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4119

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Eric Cole finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -29.74% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100 + ~$0.0007 est. fees
Days to maturity: 11
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -33.97% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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