Pair #9640

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-RCAS

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Ricky Castillo finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Ricky Castillo
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2258

YES ask: 0.4000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ricky Castillo finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-RCAS

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Ricky Castillo finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Ricky Castillo
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3116

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ricky Castillo finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -98.13% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1200 + ~$0.0074 est. fees
Days to maturity: 11
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -102.36% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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