Pair #9634

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-MBRE

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Michael Brennan finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Michael Brennan
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6434

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Brennan finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-MBRE

Will Michael Brennan win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Michael Brennan
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 530349

YES ask: 0.0020
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0020

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Brennan wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: finish-position markets in different tournaments

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -7.51% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0020 + ~$0.0001 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -11.74% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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