Pair #9633

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-MBRE

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Michael Brennan finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Michael Brennan
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6434

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Brennan finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-MBRE

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Michael Brennan finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Michael Brennan
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 15569

YES ask: 0.4000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Brennan finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4000 + ~$0.0168 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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